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Social Arb investing was popularized by DumbMoney.tv Prediction Markets expand the pie.
Chris Camillo is famous for Social Arbitrage investing. Invest in what’s around you. Better understand where culture is trending, what is going on in social platforms like TikTok, X, YouTube, and Google Trends.
Now with Prediction Markets, the opportunity for social arb investing or trading or being degenerate is exploding. I saw this post recently, and it opened my eyes to how big this could be:
This guy watched the data on $SPOT ( ▼ 0.18% ) and was able to make a great profit betting on Bad Bunny over Taylor Swift. Will the liquidity be there for this to get big enough? For the hedge fund and market makers to really profit? I think we will see it in some verticals and in others, there will be niche traders/predictors that profit and make a killing even if the market doesn’t have a lot of liquidity. Similar to public markets, there will be day traders trading penny stocks, small caps, and mid caps, that don’t attract a ton of institutional cash, but the large caps, the predictions on macro events like rate cuts, Superbowl winners, and large elections will see billions.
The blending of betting and investing and predicting and trading, and everything in between is becoming blurred. I am excited to see the first Quant Fund to do prediction markets at scale!
