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Who is the regulator? Does it matter?
Prediction markets are everywhere. Even Fanatics is launching a prediction market now. The question that keeps coming up on X and social circles is, is this legal? Who is regulating this? Does it matter?
The prediction markets are being made on everything from when will SpaceX go public, to will Kelce retire in 2026, to how many hot dogs will be eaten on the 4th of July next year. The problem is many people have inside information or they can move the markets like the Coinbase CEO did on a recent earnings call.
At this point, it seems like the wild, wild west. Like early ICO and crypto pump trading. Is there a regulator who is going to go after insider trading or insider predicting? Does the current administration really care? It feels like prediction markets will be everywhere. Shit, it’s the new media at this point. It’s on CNN, and CNBC, and every other media outlet will soon start integrating Polymarket or Kalshi.
It feels like there are niche traders/predictors making money everywhere, and the stories get crazier and crazier. Will the CFTC or SEC regulate at some point? Only time will tell.
